時間: 10/19 (一) 14:30-16:00
講題: Analysts’ Reputational Concerns, Self-censoring and the International Dispersion Effect
Stocks with higher forecast dispersion earn lower future returns and have a greater upward bias in consensus earnings forecasts in international markets. Both phenomena are stronger in countries with more transparent information environments, more developed stock markets, stronger investor protection, greater capital openness, and greater usage of analysts’ forecasts. Using the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis as a natural experiment, we find both phenomena become weaker post crisis in Malaysia which imposed capital controls, relative to Thailand and South Korea which opened up their financial markets to foreigners. These results suggest that analysts in countries with greater demand for their forecasts and hence greater concern for reputation are more likely to self-censor low forecasts, leading to a stronger dispersion effect.